This post simply includes 2 pieces of information: Answers to the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” from the weekend immediately prior to the referendum, and answers to the same question, surveyed on 23rd August 2016 (ie. exactly 2 months after the referendum).
Responses to a survey on “the Brexit Question” immediately prior to the vote:
(data here is from 2,008 responses, weighted on the basis of demographic information from 1,485 respondents. All were in the UK, but were not qualified on eligibility to vote, or on whether they intended to vote)
Responses to a survey on “the Brexit Question” exactly 2 months after the vote:
(data here is from 1,002 responses, weighted on the basis of demographic information from 763 respondents. All were in the UK, but were not qualified on eligibility to vote, or on whether they had/had not voted)
A summary of the change in the above numbers is as follows:
- Immediately prior to the referendum, the survey indicated a likely ‘Remain’ vote. As you can see from the error percentages, a “Leave” vote was within the margin of error. (ie, the poll was inconclusive)
- 2 months following the referendum, the ‘Remain’ percentage has grown significantly; the ‘Leave’ percentage has grown by a smaller amount (but has still grown), and the ‘Undecided’ percentage has dropped by over 10 percentage points, with roughly 80% of that ‘undecided’ pool going to ‘Remain’, and roughly 20% going to ‘Leave’. The error bars no longer overlap (ie, the respondents to the poll were, overall, in favour of remaining)
- As always, this is simply a snapshot poll, not an actual vote with real-world ramifications.
- The 2 pools polled are not identical (ie. the survey respondents are not the same people)
- None of the above is qualified by actual intention to vote, or whether the respondents voted or not.
Many more caveats apply. If you would like me to go into further detail on those, please do let me know.
(For full clarity: I do this purely out of interest, and fund it myself).