EU Referendum Poll

Here is the result of a poll run on a sample of 2,000 UK web users, carried out online between the 18th & 21st June 2016. Demographic data was collected for 1485 of those responses. Below you’ll find:

1. An overall summary result.
2. Results excluding ‘undecided’ voters.
3. Split by age.
4. Split by gender.

Data was gathered anonymously, asking the referendum question, and is summarised weighted against the internet population of the UK.

Overall Summary:

• Excluding ‘Undecided’, 53.4% prefer ‘Remain’ while 46.6% prefer ‘Leave’.
• Men were slightly more likely to answer ‘Remain’ than women; paradoxically men were also more likely to answer ‘Leave’ than women. Men were much more likely to give an answer one way or the other, whereas a higher percentage of women answered ‘Undecided’.
• Age is a strong predictor of response. 18-24 year olds were most likely to answer ‘Remain’; 65+ year olds were more likely to answer ‘Leave’.

Weighted Results:

“Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?”

• Remain: 37.2%
• Leave: 32.5%
• Undecided: 30.3%

Results excluding ‘Undecided’

Stripping out the ‘Undecided’ portion, the results are as follows:

• Remain: 53.4%
• Leave: 46.6%

‘Split by Age:

The ‘Remain’ group, broken down by age group, is as follows:

The ‘Leave’ group, broken down by age group, is as follows:

Split by Gender:

 

Appendix:

• The poll ran & as displayed to a random sample of users within the UK.
• The question was worded as per the official question.
• There are lots of caveats with data such as this. It is a ‘snapshot’ rather than a ‘prediction’.
• I have asked the specific ballot question, rather than framing it as “If you were to vote today…?”.
• I’ve left error bars on the results so that you can see the variability.
• I included a series of caveats & additional notes on a previous similar poll I ran. You can read those in the ‘caveats’ section of this post.
• For full clarity, here is the breakdown of respondents, and their bias vs the general ‘Internet Population’ of Scotland